Workers in London and the South East are likely to be worst hit by the recession, with one in 12 jobs going, according to a Local Government Association (LGA) report in November.
To add to the gloom a report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released on the same day, forecast that recession would drag on until October 2010, with unemployment reaching 2.9 million.
This time around it will be London that bears the brunt of recession, rather than manufacturing areas in the North and Midlands. Banks are expected to shed tens of thousands of jobs (and have already started) and construction firms have been hit hard.
The CBI said the recession will be “longer and deeper” than forecast as recently as September, but that the economy would begin to recover in 2010. According to John Cridland, deputy director of the CBI “the jury is still out on whether all the different government interventions will work”.
There is some good news: according to the LGA report anyone employed in business services, defence, public administration, transport or the service sector may be protected, with some job increases even predicted.
Another November report looked at retailers' chances of surviving the recession. Up to last month Central London Connexions retail vacancies were holding up well. However, on 30th October Westfield London opened in White City and the ‘Westfield Effect’ diminished. There are still vacancies in the centre, but the big recruitment drive is over. There are fewer Christmas temp vacancies than last year and the Retail Job Information Sheet is starting to look a bit thin.
Looking ahead the picture on the high street is a mixed one. MFI and Woolworths are in administration, but other stores continue to have good profit margins. A recent study for The Times found clothing, footwear and accessories by far the most profitable part of the retail industry. Of the top ten top performing retail companies by profit margin, nine are predominantly clothes retailers, with only Topps Tiles breaking the monopoly at number two. Of the major high street names River Island was top and Next ninth. Opticians, pharmacies, health and beauty also tend to turn in a profit margin that should see them through the recession.