Three quarter of a million more London jobs by 2031
GLA Economics has just published research looking at employment projections for London up to the year 2031.
Across London employment is predicted to grow by 277,000 by 2016, and 756,000 by 2031 based on 2007 levels. Looking at the overall employment for the Central London Connexions boroughs, only Wandsworth is projected not to have recovered to 2007 levels by 2011.
Westminster has the highest employment density of CLC boroughs, so not surprisingly it is projected to see 110,000 more jobs between 2007 and 2031. Camden, Islington and Southwark are also predicted to see a rise of between 48,000 and 71,000 by 2031. Employment in Wandsworth is projected to recover by 2016 and slowly increase by 9,000 by 2031.
The research took into account three factors:
- Historic trends of employment - revealing the preference of employers for locating jobs in particular boroughs (for example, the City for financial services).
- Site capacity – reflecting the expected availability of new business sites for jobs to locate.
- Accessibility – reflecting the relative ‘pull’ of the London boroughs, reflecting changes in accessibility resulting from scheduled investments in London’s transport.
Looking at employment by business sector manufacturing, construction, wholesale, transport and communications and public admin are projected to decline between 2007 and 2031. Considering the effects of the recession it is probably not surprising that finance employment is not expected to see large increases. Most other sectors are expected to see steady increases, particularly hospitality, business services and other services.
Trevor Bottomley
Employment & Labour Market Adviser
Central London Connexions
December 2009