A stalled global economic recovery has begun to dramatically affect employment prospects.
In a grim analysis issued on the eve of the G20 leader’s summit, the International Labour Organization (ILO) says the global economy is on the verge of a new and deeper jobs recession that will further delay the global economic recovery and may ignite more social unrest in scores of countries.
An earlier ILO report (covered in the March 2011 LMI update) demonstrated that the economic recovery had not brought about a comparable recovery in employment. Now, on current trends, it will take at least five years to return employment in advanced economies to pre-crisis levels.
The report also features a new “social unrest” index that shows levels of discontent over the lack of jobs and anger over perceptions that the burden of the crisis is not being shared fairly. It notes that in over 45 of the 119 countries examined, the risk of social unrest is rising.
It is not just in London or the UK that poor job prospects continue to take their toll on youth aged 15 to 24. Among countries with recently available data, more than one in five youth were unemployed in the first quarter of 2011 – against total unemployment of 9.6 per cent.
Youth unemployment rates have remained above 20 per cent since the second quarter of 2009, this does not bode well for future labour market success in terms of skills acquisition and earnings capacity over the long term. Quality jobs have been scarce, notably in the European Union, where only temporary jobs have shown an increase.
The report calls for strengthening of pro-employment programmes, warning that efforts to reduce public debts have often disproportionately focused on labour market and social measures. For example, it shows that increasing active labour market spending by only half a per cent of GDP would increase employment by between 0.4 per cent and 0.8 per cent.
The ILO is a United Nations agency and you can view the
full report online.
Trevor Bottomley
Employment & Labour Market Adviser
Central London Connexions
November 2011
A stalled global economic recovery has begun to dramatically affect employment prospects.
In a grim analysis issued on the eve of the G20 leader’s summit, the International Labour Organization (ILO) says the global economy is on the verge of a new and deeper jobs recession that will further delay the global economic recovery and may ignite more social unrest in scores of countries.
An earlier ILO report (covered in the March 2011 LMI update) demonstrated that the economic recovery had not brought about a comparable recovery in employment. Now, on current trends, it will take at least five years to return employment in advanced economies to pre-crisis levels.
The report also features a new “social unrest” index that shows levels of discontent over the lack of jobs and anger over perceptions that the burden of the crisis is not being shared fairly. It notes that in over 45 of the 119 countries examined, the risk of social unrest is rising.
It is not just in London or the UK that poor job prospects continue to take their toll on youth aged 15 to 24. Among countries with recently available data, more than one in five youth were unemployed in the first quarter of 2011 – against total unemployment of 9.6 per cent.
Youth unemployment rates have remained above 20 per cent since the second quarter of 2009, this does not bode well for future labour market success in terms of skills acquisition and earnings capacity over the long term. Quality jobs have been scarce, notably in the European Union, where only temporary jobs have shown an increase.
The report calls for strengthening of pro-employment programmes, warning that efforts to reduce public debts have often disproportionately focused on labour market and social measures. For example, it shows that increasing active labour market spending by only half a per cent of GDP would increase employment by between 0.4 per cent and 0.8 per cent.
The ILO is a United Nations agency and you can view the
full report online.
Trevor Bottomley
Employment & Labour Market Adviser
Central London Connexions
November 2011